Assumptions & Predictions about COVID-19

By Julie E. Goodman, PhD

By now you have heard the predictions of thousands or maybe millions of illnesses and deaths from the coronavirus if we don’t continue to take measures to prevent its spread.  That’s a pretty wide range, and it’s hard to know what to believe.

The reason for this range is that all of these predictions are based on statistical models. As British statistician George E. P. Box said, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The reason for this is that all models are based on facts and assumptions, and the more assumptions modelers have to make, the more uncertain their models are.

While we are learning more each day about how the coronavirus spreads around the world, there is still much we don’t know, and many assumptions have to be made to make predictions. Many models assume people won’t change their behavior. They assume no social distancing, and sometimes no isolations or quarantines.

We now have about 12,500 known cases of COVID-19 and 231 known deaths in Massachusetts, and the actual numbers are certainly higher. When all of this is done, my hope is that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths here and around the world is much lower than predicted, not because these models were bad, but because we did something to prove their assumptions wrong. Please keep handwashing, social distancing, and self-isolate at home when you are sick so we can make this happen!

Dr. Julie Goodman, PhD, is an expert in toxicology and epidemiology and their application to human health risk assessments. She is board certified in toxicology and is a fellow of both the American College of Epidemiology and the Academy of Toxicological Sciences. A Canton native, she currently serves on the Canton Board of Health.

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